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Tuesday, July 06, 2010

Bush Stimulus vs. Obama Stimulus - Eighteen Months Later

Around this time last year, I reviewed the Bush stimulus passed in 2003 vs. the Obama stimulus passed in 2009. Both recessions/situations were similar in that we had lost significant amounts of household wealth, experienced massive stock market declines and recessions.

The stark difference was the stock market reaction to each stimulus. You can use your own judgment as to whether the stock market is right or wrong today but the investor community has spoken quite clearly.

Over the 18-month time frame from March 2003 (1 month prior to passage of Bush's plan) through October 2004, the S&P 500 went from 835 to 1136, a gain of 36.0%.

Over the 18-month time frame from January 2008 (1 month prior to passage of Obama's plan) through July 2010, the S&P 500 went from 932 to 1023, a gain of only 9.3%.

The market has given its verdict and Obama's stimulus has been ineffective, to say the least. I should also note that the stock market continued climbing another 35% under Bush through the end of 2007. How many people are so bullish about the next couple of years under Obama?