New Poll Shows Frank Leading Bielat 49-37

WPRI just came out with a new poll, showing Frank leading, with 12% undecided. I love this, as it will likely give Frank a false sense of security. I think it's going to be extremely close, but I see Bielat taking it. Here's my analysis: In 2008, a huge turnout year for democrats because of Obama, Frank took 68% of his district, Two unknowns took 32% of the vote. In this year's race there's really only 2 candidates - and Bielat is quickly becoming known. To assume that Bielat only takes 37% of the vote is very unreasonable, considering two people with ZERO press recogntion got 32% in 2008.

The real reason for optimism is what Scott Brown did to MA district 4. In the key towns: Brookline, Dartmouth, Fall River, New Bedford, Newton, and Taunton - Democrats voted 34% less frequently for Coakley than they did 2 years earlier for Frank. But in those same key towns, Brown captured +65% more than Franks' Republican competitor in 2008.

It's hard to extrapolate Brown's race to Bielat because some might argue that Frank is not as bad as Coakley and that Bielat is not as good as Brown. I actually believe Frank is as bad as Coakley, but that Bielat won't attract as many votes as Brown did. So here goes: the simple math would be to say Frank will get 35% fewer votes than in 2008, and Bielat could capture 40% more than the Frank's two opponents did in 2008. I think these are reasonable assumptions. I'm calling it for Bielat 133K to Franks' 131K.