The Ports Disaster
OK, I now admit it - the Dubai/U.S. ports deal is now a disaster for the Bush Administration and will push him to lame duck status very soon. I hate to be so pessimistic, but based on comments and positions from well-respected conservatives who are now opposing Bush on various issues, particularly the ports deal, the GOP coalition in Congress seems to be lost.
While I continue to believe the story is much more bark than bite (and quite easy to demagogue), the repercussions will likely be far greater:
1) Democrats were given a gift on "national security," by allowing them to appear tough on port security and immigration. (This, despite the fact that they would rather try terrorists in a court of law than kill them on the battlefield and still think Saddam posed no threat to the U.S. And does anyone really think they would have a better policy on immigration?)
2) Democrats now have a chance to take over Congress in 2006 elections. (I don't think it will happen, but before this issue, there was exactly zero chance it would happen.)
3) The tax cuts will unlikely garner enough votes from the GOP to be extended, at least until it becomes an issue in the 2008 elections. Be prepared for the uncertainty of higher tax rates.
4) No reduction in government spending. Neither Republicans nor Democrats will be willing to give up any pet projects now; pork projects will define elections (rather than national issues) for most Congressional races.
With Tom DeLay gone, Bush will have a very tough time holding the GOP together. And his handling of the ports deal has only added to his difficulty. (Where is communications "expert" Karen Hughes?)
While I continue to believe the story is much more bark than bite (and quite easy to demagogue), the repercussions will likely be far greater:
1) Democrats were given a gift on "national security," by allowing them to appear tough on port security and immigration. (This, despite the fact that they would rather try terrorists in a court of law than kill them on the battlefield and still think Saddam posed no threat to the U.S. And does anyone really think they would have a better policy on immigration?)
2) Democrats now have a chance to take over Congress in 2006 elections. (I don't think it will happen, but before this issue, there was exactly zero chance it would happen.)
3) The tax cuts will unlikely garner enough votes from the GOP to be extended, at least until it becomes an issue in the 2008 elections. Be prepared for the uncertainty of higher tax rates.
4) No reduction in government spending. Neither Republicans nor Democrats will be willing to give up any pet projects now; pork projects will define elections (rather than national issues) for most Congressional races.
With Tom DeLay gone, Bush will have a very tough time holding the GOP together. And his handling of the ports deal has only added to his difficulty. (Where is communications "expert" Karen Hughes?)
posted by Richie Rich | 9:48 AM
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