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Tuesday, October 17, 2006

Can All the Polls Be Screwy?

Powerline posts to this analysis by GOP pollster David Winston that shows a material difference in the sampling used by almost every major poll and the actual historical electorate on election day. In short, Winston believes that, if we use historical figures, then all these polls are skewed. The only way they are accurate is if there is a dramatic shift in the percentage of GOP/Dems who turn out this year.

Still, Powerline insists that all the polls can't be wrong. I disagree - I've seen enough polls that are so biased in their techniques that I have trouble believe a single poll. I suppose that in order to share my skepticism, you have to believe that the vast majority of the MSM who conduct these polls are biased to show Bush and the GOP in a more negative light than is the case. Hmm...that really doesn't seem too far-fetched, does it?