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Thursday, November 09, 2006

JD Hayworth Might Still Win Seat

In the AP's effort to call the election against conservative Rep. JD Hayworth (R-AZ) based on exit polls, they forgot to mention that only about half of the votes have yet been counted. Apparently the votes counted thus far are well below the level from the 2004 election and upon further search, it is estimated that there are another approximately 100K votes outstanding (I'm not clear how that happened). They are being counted as we speak.

Right now, Hayworth is down less than 6K votes. It doesn't make much of a difference in the big picture, but he is a solid conservative that the House could use. Here is a link to the article that says 250K votes from Maricopa County have yet to be counted (it's uncertain exactly how many are related to Hayworth's fifth district).

*Update*
I stand corrected by Jim, who commented that the ballots were absentee ballots requested. Still, I think his math is incorrect. If a 14% larger margin went to Hayworth and 25% of the overall ballot requestors returned them, that would equal approx. 8K more votes for the GOP than the Dem, which would switch to a Hayworth victory. Not a guarantee by any stretch, but still a good chance.