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Monday, November 06, 2006

Official Election Prediction

OK, here it is. My election predictions: 1) regardless of outcome, the MSM will characterize the election a "clear repudiation of President Bush's policies;" 2) The Dems will accuse the GOP of election fraud;

3) More specifically with regard to Congress, I based my predictions entirely on my unscientific belief that most of the polls are useless and reflect what the pollsters would like to hear. Based on this, I think the Dems will pick up 2-3 seats in the Senate and will be within 1 seat of taking the House. That's it. (Either way, the House won't be able to do much harm because half of the Democrats who will win are running as conservatives.)

All said, I think the Dems will be disappointed at the result but they and the media will do their best to spin it as a victory.

PS - The three Senate losses are PA, OH and RI. (I believe the GOP will get very close in MD and NJ but will fall just short.)

*Update*
Bob Novak is now onboard my train (he must have read my scientific predictions) and says that the GOP will only lose two net seats in the Senate. He also believes Steele will win in Maryland. Though he's run a great race, that would be the biggest upset of the year because Maryland Dems outnumber Republicans 2-1.