The Accuracy of Government Projections

The WSJ has in instructive piece about the real cost of Obamacare. Even though the CBO shows massive deficits over the next decade, that is nothing compared to what the cost will be beginning a decade from now. Further, here's a bit of background on the projected costs of Medicare when it first passed Congress in 1965:

That year, Congressional actuaries (CBO wasn’t around then) expected Medicare to cost $3.1 billion in 1970. In 1969, that estimate was pushed to $5 billion, and it really came in at $6.8 billion. House Ways and Means analysts estimated in 1967 that Medicare would cost $12 billion in 1990. They were off by a factor of 10—actual spending was $110 billion—even as its benefits coverage failed to keep pace with standards in the private market. Medicare spending in the first nine months of this fiscal year is $314 billion and growing by 10%. Some of this historical error is due to 1970s-era inflation, as well as advancements in care and technology. But Democrats also clearly underestimated—or lowballed—the public’s appetite for “free” health care.

So now - if we're off by a factor of ten, that's an additional $1 trillion deficit annually - goodbye U.S.