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Thursday, January 07, 2010

Partisan Gap Down to Five Points

Obama has proven to be good for one thing - he's made many Democrats ashamed to be part of his party. The partisan gap between self-declared Democrats and Republicans, which was double digits just two years ago, is now down to only 5 points.

The one indirect effect of this data means that it should further punish Obama's poll numbers. When pollsters survey, they typically overweight Democrats by margins of 10-15% or more. Now, they must adjust their weightings (assuming they care to be accurate, which many pollsters do not). No one ever scrutinizes the internal poll variables anyway, but anyone with an ounce of credibility will have to make some adjustments to their polling data.