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Wednesday, March 07, 2012

Super Tuesday - It's Not Over!

Mitt Romney obviously looks the most impressive, and out of the 10 state elections held yesterday, he took 6 of them, with Santorum taking TN, ND, and OK, and Gingrich taking GA. But if I want to look for weaknesses for Romney, in looking at the results, he's still not winning many southern states (unless Virginia and Florida are counted), and he didn't win Ohio by much. I also like to wonder what if - the big if being if Gingrich drops out of the race. How much of that support would go to Santorum? I think conventional wisdom is that most of it would, but it's hard to tell. And there are still lots of states left, including some monster ones, including TX, CA, and NY. I haven't done the analysis as to how many of those are winner take all, but I don't see this race as over at all.

It seems to me that both Gingrich and Santorum dislike Romney enough that I wouldn't be surprised if they did a tag-team to prevent Romney from taking the nomination. (a la McCain and Huckabee in 2008).

Others might point out that Romney still isn't getting anywhere near 50% of the vote and this is true. But is see this as proof that this year, Republicans actually have four pretty strong candidates, and whenever you have four pretty good candidates going at it, there's no way anyone should get 50% of the vote. I personally see all four of them as being stronger than our nominee in 2008.

I don't mind that the Republican primary race continues. I think it's healthy and it is the process not to be crowned until the end of the race. Also, a longer race gives a potential 3rd party guy less time to enter (unless that 3rd party entrant might happen to be Paul, Santorum, or Gingrich, which is also possible).