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Friday, April 24, 2009

Stress Test to Achieve Political Ends?

James Rickards, former general counsel at Long Term Capital Management, appeared as guest host on CNBC this morning and stated that the bank stress tests were conceived entirely for political purposes - not simply for grandstanding, but to achieve political goals. In other words, if the government wants influence over the GM bond negotiations, mortgage modifications or participation in the PPIP, the stress test "results" could be the perfect way to force companies into the government's arms.

At first I thought only Citigroup would "fail," but with B of A touching one of every four Americans, it sure would be tempting for the government to take a piece of B of A also. I now expect B of A's "results" to be in trouble also (or rather, it's too attractive a company not to take advantage of).

*Update*
Lest some of you think the government hasn't pre-ordained the outcome, take this quote from the NYTimes:

Officials have said that at least a handful of the 19 banks undergoing the exam will need to raise sizable amounts of fresh capital, a move that will severely dilute existing shareholders. For the tests to be credible, regulators recognize that not all of the banks can pass the exam with flying colors.