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Wednesday, January 13, 2010

MA Senate: Brown Closing the Gap

According to Rasmussen's latest, Brown is now down 49% to 47%, whereas one week ago, he was down by 9%.

I don't agree with the typical assessment that a low turnout favors Brown. This suggests that a low turnout would represent voter apathy and may not be representative of a true electorate's beliefs. I say on the contrary: Republicans are energized by being against higher spending and Obamacare, while Dems are equally excited about more spend, more socialism and the prospect of higher taxes for all. So both parties seem to be getting into it.

I'm not sure if Brown will pull it off though. I hope I'm wrong, but my reasoning is that they've already had their last debate and while Brown wants more future debates, Coakley says no. Judging by her performances, I think she's making the right decision. Likewise, her refusal to debate Brown 1 on 1 has probably also helped her. Also, I'd expect the MA democratic machine to kick into gear to help put Coakley over the top. We can probably count on 120% voter turnouts in places like Roxbury, Mattapan, and Southie. Let's see in 6 days.