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Wednesday, November 03, 2010

Post Election Analysis

Ok - everyone is talking about what the big message was in 2010. First a couple of observations:

1. GOVERNOR RACES: GOP have taken 21 of 37 governorships so far, and look like they have a good chance of winning FL/OR/ME. So let's assume they take 24/37 and adding NJ and VA elections earlier in the year, that's 26/39 or 67% of the governor races. Wow!

2. HOUSE: Let's say that 240/435 went for the GOP - that's 55%, although it is likely to end up a bit higher than that. Wow!

3. SENATE: So far it's 23/37. Throw in AK for 24. Let's assume CO and WA remain dem. 24/37 is 65% - wow!

4. BALLOT INITIATIVES: Arizona and Oklahoma voted against forcing people on healthcare plans. AZ/UT/SC/SD all voted for secret ballots at union votes. AZ voted against affirmative action. Too many to mention, but a lot of decent stuff.

5. The Republicans that were elected are more conservative than before. First - we've cleaned out some dead wood - Crist, Spector. Also didn't let guys like Castle (Rino) in DE. Also some Dem's elected are more conservative (Manchin - WV). And the Republicans elected - many are VERY conservative - Paul, Toomey, Rubio, Johnson.

6. SPIN: As Richie mentions, we already were getting the spin before the election began. Post election, I've heard most TV commentators talk about the disappointment of the Tea Party results and that this would spell the end of their influence. I think the exact opposite is happening. Sure there were a couple of duds - O'Donnell, Angle, notably. But what about Rand Paul, Marco Rubio, Ron Johnson, Nikki Haley, Pat Toomey - and the list goes on and on? This movement is just beginning. It's not ending.

7. OVERALL RESULT: Very positive. Biggest change since 1948. Sure some disappointments happened. And I'm not generally excited until I see follow-through. What's important now is to follow through with the cost cutting and tax cuts.

8. MESSAGE: Anti-Obama in most places. Pro-small government in most places. These trends will hopefully continue.