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Wednesday, August 24, 2011

Why Obama is in Trouble

As I've posted results of Obama's Approval/Disapproval ratings, according to Rasmussen, some may wonder why this poll is different to lots of the other polls, many of which are biased. Commentary Magazine has an interesting insight, particularly regarding the Strongly Approve/Strongly Disapprove Survey. of the useful aspects of the Rasmussen poll is it reflects “likely voters” (not simply adults or registered voters), and measures their intensity. As Professor Larry Sabato has observed, elections are decided by those who show up; those who strongly disapprove are very unlikely to stay home, and they are approaching an absolute majority.

So Where is Obama today? He is at -26, but 45% of Americans Strongly Disapprove. By contrast:

George W. Bush, in his last full month in office, was at 43 percent “strongly disapprove” and Minus 30 overall – at the end of an exhausted eight-year administration pummeled throughout by the MSM.

I think in a two man race, Obama is looking like George McGovern, and I don't even think Massachusetts is a done deal. (Of course, in terms of policy-making, I surely would prefer McGovern over Obama!) It's possible that Obama could beat someone like Bachmann, who is a weakish candidate, but even that is uncertain. My belief is that the only thing that can save him is a third party. Unfortunately what will save him, will crush our country.

Interesting that while liberals agree that a majority of Americans intensely dislike Obama's policies, they often will sight that Americans really like him personally. I find this very hard to believe. The President is a cool (cold even), calculating man. His jokes fall flat, and his smiles don't appear genuine. If he has a charming personality (like Clinton or Reagan) he certainly keeps it to himself. When I see polls indicating that people really like him personally, I wonder if people are saying they like him because they don't want to be accused of not liking him.