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Friday, February 17, 2012

Sean Bielat vs Joe Kennedy III: It's Possible!

Many people are already slotting in the youngster, Joe Kennedy III as MA-4's next representative in November, especially after a recent poll shows him winning 70-30, something like that. I say not so fast!

It will be a battle. But it's not impossible. First, Bielat has some name recognition in the district from 2010. Secondly, and perhaps more importantly, the district has changed. First of all, New Bedford, is gone from the district in the new re-districting in Massachusetts. New Bedford voted over 70% to Barney Frank in 2010 and was the district's second largest city. Replacing New Bedford will be a number of new towns in the southeastern part of the state, many of which went to Scott Brown in his special election a few years ago - towns like Attleboro, North Attleboro, Wrentham, Franklin. A lot of small towns, but it's another 325,000 new constituents. Don't worry, it still won't be easy for Bielat either, as Needham (largely Democrat) has been added, and Middleborough (largely Republican) has been removed. But still, it is a new district.

Combine this with the fact that Joe Kennedy has virtually no work experience in the private sector and while he does have a last name which may help him, his lack of life experience may hurt him. I don't know anything about him, except that he thinks Barney Frank did a great job, and that his father was one of the few people in the world who openly supported Hugo Chavez. These facts alone suggest he's pretty lefty and it's possible that this new district is already tired of that and of the Kennedy nepotism that has plagued the state for the past century.

Let's see what happens!