Santorum Takes Two; Romney Grabs More Delegates
Tuesday saw another three states vote, plus Samoa. While the consensus opinion will probably be that Santorum continues strong, as he won Alabama and Mississippi, it's interesting that Romney probably picked up more delegates than Santorum on Tuesday. According to the AP, Romney will pick up at least 31 delegates, Santorum picks up 29, and Gingrich 24.
Politics can be a momentum gain, so I do think Tuesday was important for Santorum. On the other hand, Romney won Hawaii (plus Samoa), and was pretty competitive in Mississippi and not too far behind in Alabama. If the knock on Romney is that he can't win Southern states with their evangelical roots, Romney didn't perform badly. And let's face it, you can't get much more Southern than those two states. So if this is as tough as it gets for Romney, well, he's in good shape. Still not a cake walk, but in good shape.
The real question might be: what is Gingrich's move. I suspect that Newt has two real options, after Tuesday: 1. He can continue battling and hope for a brokered convention, or 2. He can perhaps cut a deal with Santorum. I suppose he can also bow out gracefully. My bet is he continues battling. He knows that Romney doesn't have 50% in a 4 man race. He knows that Santorum doesn't either. Also, we still have a couple of huge states left in Texas and California, and who knows - if Gingrich somehow could actually win these, then he could perhaps influence the Republican Party to select him.
****UPDATE**** Romney ended up taking 41 delegates from Tuesday, Santorum 35.
Politics can be a momentum gain, so I do think Tuesday was important for Santorum. On the other hand, Romney won Hawaii (plus Samoa), and was pretty competitive in Mississippi and not too far behind in Alabama. If the knock on Romney is that he can't win Southern states with their evangelical roots, Romney didn't perform badly. And let's face it, you can't get much more Southern than those two states. So if this is as tough as it gets for Romney, well, he's in good shape. Still not a cake walk, but in good shape.
The real question might be: what is Gingrich's move. I suspect that Newt has two real options, after Tuesday: 1. He can continue battling and hope for a brokered convention, or 2. He can perhaps cut a deal with Santorum. I suppose he can also bow out gracefully. My bet is he continues battling. He knows that Romney doesn't have 50% in a 4 man race. He knows that Santorum doesn't either. Also, we still have a couple of huge states left in Texas and California, and who knows - if Gingrich somehow could actually win these, then he could perhaps influence the Republican Party to select him.
****UPDATE**** Romney ended up taking 41 delegates from Tuesday, Santorum 35.
posted by pistolpete | 4:03 AM
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