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Tuesday, January 03, 2012

Iowa Caucuses: Do They Matter?

Based on roughly half of the votes being counted in the Iowa Caucuses, it appears that Rick Santorum and Mitt Romney will be in the first and second positions with Paul in a close third. Regardless, does it really matter? After all, Iowa has a population of approximately 3 million people. Let's assume conservatively that only 2 million are voting age. Only about 100,000 votes are expected in the caucuses, which means that 1/2 of a percent of the voting population will decide the fate of the GOP candidate. It doesn't take much to skew the results with a few thousand votes (and some might be Democrats as well). So why is the media in such a frenzy? The same thing will be true of New Hampshire. If someone wins both Iowa and NH, the media will declare that person the winner, which I think is absurd.